TDOT says DriveTN’s proposal could create $24.8 billion in concession value over the life of the I-24 Choice Lanes partnership. The department also says that figure is not cash available today, and the final agreement has not been completed.
By The Redemption Project Newsroom
Transportation / Follow the Dollar / Systems Explained
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Tennessee has attached an extraordinary number to its proposed Interstate 24 Choice Lanes partnership: $24.8 billion.
It is not a $24.8 billion check.
The Tennessee Department of Transportation says DriveTN, the private team selected for the project, estimates the I-24 corridor can produce approximately $24.8 billion in total “concession value” under a long-term public-private partnership. TDOT’s own FAQ defines that figure as the proposer’s estimate of the corridor’s potential value after accounting for project and financing costs. The department explicitly says the value is not unrestricted cash available to Tennessee today and is not secured until final terms and protections are in place.
That distinction is critical because the number is large enough to reshape Tennessee’s transportation debate.
Before the state begins treating $24.8 billion as a resource available for other roads, the public needs to see how the number is built, when any actual payments arrive and what assumptions must remain true for the value to materialize.
The project and the valuation are different numbers
DriveTN’s proposed construction cost is approximately $9.2 billion.
That is more than twice TDOT’s earlier $4.5 billion base concept, but the department says the two figures do not describe identical projects. DriveTN’s proposal includes additional design elements, access improvements, park-and-ride commitments, transit integration and other changes that TDOT says create a different project rather than simply making the same design more expensive.
Subject to a final agreement, DriveTN would finance, design, build, operate and maintain roughly 26 miles of new Choice Lanes between Nashville and the I-840 area. The team includes Cintra, Transurban, Tikehau, Ferrovial, Webber and AECOM. Existing general-purpose lanes would remain available without a user fee.
Drivers who choose the new lanes would pay.
Exactly how much they will pay is not yet public.
TDOT says specific user-fee rates have not been established for release. Earlier modeling assumed at least $1 for a full-corridor trip in 2024 dollars and higher pricing during periods of congestion to maintain reliable speeds, but those modeling assumptions are not a final toll schedule.
That user-fee stream is central to the financial model.
What does $24.8 billion actually consist of?
The phrase “concession value” can hide several very different kinds of value.
Some could be construction performed by the private partner. Some could represent future operations and maintenance. Some could involve payments or revenue sharing with Tennessee. Other portions could reflect lifecycle obligations, financing commitments or value attributed to improvements the developer promises to deliver.
The public FAQ does not provide a year-by-year schedule showing those components.
That is the document Tennessee needs next.
Is $24.8 billion a nominal total accumulated over decades or a present-value figure discounted into today’s dollars? How much, if any, is paid to Tennessee near financial close? What amounts arrive later? What portion represents construction and maintenance rather than cash the state can redirect?
Without that schedule, the public knows the valuation but not its timing.
And with a long-term infrastructure concession, timing can be as important as the headline amount.
The assumptions matter because drivers produce the revenue
A priced-lane project depends heavily on traffic.
The financial model has to estimate how many motorists will use the Choice Lanes, what they will pay, how traffic grows and how inflation changes the value of future revenue.
If fewer drivers use the lanes than projected, someone bears that risk.
The final agreement should tell Tennesseans whether that risk remains primarily with DriveTN or whether the state could owe availability payments, minimum-revenue support or compensation under specified circumstances.
The same is true when government makes changes later.
Could Tennessee expand free general-purpose lanes nearby without compensating the concessionaire? Could it build a competing road? Expand transit? Change the tolling policy? What happens if a future Legislature changes the law?
None of those provisions should be assumed to exist.
They are precisely why the concession agreement matters.
Tennessee says the deal is still being verified
TDOT is unusually explicit about the current posture.
The department says it is verifying DriveTN’s commitments, completing required reviews and finalizing the agreement. Some proposal details remain confidential while that process continues.
TDOT also announced public meetings Sept. 8 at the Nashville Public Library Pruitt Branch and Sept. 9 at the Smyrna Event Center to discuss the next phase.
That gives the public an opportunity to ask questions before every financial term is locked.
The most useful questions are not simply whether motorists like tolls.
They are what Tennessee gets in return.
Knoxville should watch what Nashville signs
The financial structure matters beyond Middle Tennessee.
TDOT is separately studying improvements along approximately 17 miles of I-40/I-75 west of Knoxville. The alternatives under consideration include a Choice Lanes option, although the Knoxville study has not selected that alternative or approved a comparable project.
That means I-24 could become Tennessee’s most important contractual precedent for future priced-lane partnerships.
Knoxville residents therefore have reason to understand how Tennessee allocates risk, protects free lanes, controls future toll methodology and divides the financial upside of a long concession before the model travels east.
The next document matters more than the announcement
A $24.8 billion concession value could prove enormously beneficial to Tennessee.
The proposal could shift construction and operating risk to private capital while preserving existing free lanes and creating additional transportation resources elsewhere in the state.
But none of those benefits should be measured by the headline number alone.
TDOT’s own language points to the correct standard: the $24.8 billion is a proposal, not unrestricted cash, and the agency is still working to secure and verify it.
The final concession agreement needs to show the public what the state receives, when it receives it, what motorists are expected to pay and which party bears the financial consequences when assumptions fail.
Tennessee has published the valuation. Now it needs to publish the math that makes the valuation real.
I am a retired detective and criminal justice / government educator based in Tennessee. I founded The Redemption Project, as a place to focus on civics, rebuild non-partisan trust, and provide educational and emotional grace while learning about the news. I also have a column in Knox TN Today. My reporting and commentary have also appeared in other outlets including; Governing, The Arizona Capitol Times, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Police1, among other state and regional outlets.
